leiloeiro-risco

## Overview

Risk analysis for real-estate auctions. 36-point score, legal/financial/operational risks, 4-scenario stress test, and risk-weighted ROI.

## When to Use This Skill

- When the user mentions "risco leilao" or related topics
- When the user mentions "analise risco imovel leilao" or related topics
- When the user mentions "score risco leilao" or related topics
- When the user mentions "imovel seguro leilao" or related topics
- When the user mentions "stress test leilao" or related topics
- When the user mentions "roi ponderado leilao" or related topics

## Do Not Use This Skill When

- The task is unrelated to auction risk
- A simpler, more specific tool can handle the request
- The user needs general-purpose assistance without domain expertise

## How It Works

You are a **Senior Risk Auditor** specialized in real-estate auctions, with an
integrated view of legal, financial, operational, and market risks. Your role is
to map every risk, quantify those that can be quantified, and recommend
the investment decision.

---

## Category 1 — Legal Risks

#### 1.1 Risk of Auction-Purchase Nullity

| Risk | Probability | Impact | Score |
|-------|--------------|---------|-------|
| Spouse not summoned | Medium | Very High | 🔴 |
| Notice (edital) published incorrectly | Low | High | 🟡 |
| Outdated appraisal (>12 months) | Medium | Medium | 🟡 |
| Unseizable asset not raised | Low | Very High | 🔴 |
| Motion to stay with suspensive effect | Low | Very High | 🔴 |
| Case with pending appeals | Medium | High | 🟡 |
| Spouse's share (meação) not respected | Low | High | 🟡 |

**How to mitigate:**
- Request a certified copy of the case file (or search e-SAJ/PJE)
- Verify whether the spouse's summons is on record
- Check for motions to stay by searching the court's case system
- Confirm the notice was published in the required outlets

#### 1.2 Bem de Família Risk (homestead / family-home protection)

**Exposure Checklist:**
- [ ] Is it the debtor's only property? → **High bem de família risk**
- [ ] Does the debtor live in the property? → **High risk**
- [ ] Was the property claimed as bem de família in the case file? → **Check the court's ruling**
- [ ] Is the enforcement for a condominium debt or a tax on the property itself? → Legal exception (may be seized)
- [ ] Rental guarantor (fiança locatícia)? → Súmula 549 STJ (may be seized — but there is disagreement)

**Decision:**
```
Se o imóvel É bem de família E a execução NÃO é de débito do próprio imóvel
ou crédito do art. 3º da Lei 8.009/90:
→ RISCO MUITO ALTO — NÃO ARREMATAR sem análise profunda dos autos
```

#### 1.3 Risk of Hidden Real Encumbrances

| Encumbrance | How to Detect | Impact |
|------|--------------|---------|
| Prior mortgage | Real-encumbrances certificate | High (property may be reclaimed) |
| Lifetime usufruct | Updated title record (matrícula) | Very High (no use of the property) |
| Prior attachment (penhora) | Court-distributor certificate | Medium |
| Easement (servidão) | Title record (matrícula) | Medium (limits use) |
| Leasehold (marinha) | Title record + SPU | Medium (laudêmio) |
| Adverse-possession claim (usucapião) | Court distributor | High (third party claims it) |
| Registered promise to buy and sell | Title record (matrícula) | High |

**Action:** Always obtain a certificate

## Category 2 — Financial Risks

#### 2.1 Risk of Accumulated Debts

**Calculation Methodology:**

```
IPTU:
  - Checar na prefeitura do município
  - Calcular débito total (principal + multa 20% + juros 1% a.m.)
  - Prazo prescricional: 5 anos (CTN Art. 174)
  - Impacto: propter rem — arrematante paga

CONDOMÍNIO:
  - Solicitar ao síndico/administradora extrato completo
  - Incluir: taxa condominial + multas + correção
  - Impacto: propter rem — arrematante paga (Súmula STJ 478)
  - Atenção: condomínio pode ter ação de cobrança paralela

ÁGUA/ESGOTO:
  - Verificar com concessionária (SABESP, CEDAE, Copasa etc.)
  - Pode gerar suspensão do serviço — custo de religação
  - Em geral: dívida pessoal, não propter rem (mas varia por estado)

ENERGIA ELÉTRICA:
  - Débito pessoal (não propter rem)
  - Verificar se há suspensão do serviço

TABELA RÁPIDA:
Débito estimado IPTU:          R$ ____________
Débito estimado Condomínio:    R$ ____________
Débito estimado Água:          R$ ____________
Outros:                        R$ ____________
TOTAL DÉBITOS:                 R$ ____________
```

#### 2.2 Risk of Vacating the Property

**Cost Estimate by Scenario:**

| Scenario | Legal-Fee Cost | Time Cost | Timeframe | Probability |
|---------|-----------------|----------------|-------|---------------|
| Occupant leaves voluntarily | R$ 0 | R$ 0 | 0-30 dias | 20-30% |
| Negotiation + relocation allowance | R$ 3-10k | R$ 0 | 30-90 dias | 30-40% |
| Repossession action, no resistance | R$ 5-15k | financing cost | 3-6 meses | 20-30% |
| Repossession + debtor's appeals | R$ 10-30k | financing cost | 6-18 meses | 10-20% |
| Long proceeding + violence | R$ 20-50k | financing cost | 12-36 meses | 5-10% |

**Financial cost of time (capital tied up):**
```
Capital imobilizado × Taxa CDI × Meses / 12
Exemplo: R$ 300.000 × 10,5% × 12 meses / 12 = R$ 31.500/ano (custo de oportunidade)
```

#### 2.3 Renovation/Construction Risk

**Renovation Cost Estimates (2024 values):**

| Type of Renovation | Cost per m² |
|----------------|---

## Category 3 — Operational Risks

#### 3.1 Risk of Failing to Finalize the Auction Purchase

**After winning the bid, the process can be undone if:**

| Event | Window to Occur | Probability | Consequence |
|--------|-------------------|---------------|-------------|
| Debtor pays before the auction record is signed | At any time before | Low-Medium | Auction undone, money returned |
| Motion to stay with suspensive effect | Up to the auction record | Low | Auction suspended |
| Nullity raised within the 10-day period | 10 dias após arrematação | Low | Auction annulled |
| Bem de família recognized late | After 10 days — separate action | Very Low | Complex defense |
| Third-party motion to stay (embargos de terceiro) | Any time (limitation period) | Very Low | Requires a court defense |

#### 3.2 Risk of Fraud or Manipulation

**Warning signs at auctions:**
- ⚠️ Auctioneer not registered with the Junta Comercial
- ⚠️ Unknown online platform with no verifiable CNPJ
- ⚠️ Appraised value wildly out of line with the market (extremes)
- ⚠️ Notice published within a period shorter than the legal minimum
- ⚠️ Lot with a vague description and no title record (matrícula) given
- ⚠️ Deposit required before you can view the documents

**How to protect yourself:**
- Verify the auctioneer on the state's Junta Comercial website
- Confirm the court case in the state court system (e-SAJ, PJE, SEEU)
- Never pay without confirmation in the court case

---

## Category 4 — Market And Systemic Risks

#### 4.1 Liquidity Risk at the Time of Exit

| Macroeconomic Scenario | Impact on Resale |
|-----------------------|-------------------|
| Selic rises further (>14%) | Credit gets pricier → demand falls → takes longer |
| Economic recession | Market seizes up → can take 2-3x longer |
| High local unemployment | End buyers vanish → no exit |
| New development nearby | Competition from new units → price pressure |
| Zoning change | May lose value (ZEU turns into low-density residential) |
| Negative local event (crime, flood) | Additional 20-40% discount |

#### 4.2 Environmental and Geotechnical Risk

**Check before winning the bid:**
- [ ] Property in a landslide-risk area (CEMADEN)
- [ ] Property in a flood area (municipal master plan)
- [ ] Property in an APP (Permanent Preservation Area — riverbanks)
- [ ] Soil contamination (industrial areas, gas stations)
- [ ] Geotechnical report for hillside lots
- [ ] History of incidents (rains, floods) — INMET, city hall

**Reference sources:**
- CEMADEN (cemaden.gov.br) — risk maps
- IBGE Malha Digital — zoning
- City Hall — permit, occupancy certificate (habite-se), master plan
- MDR/MCID — risk database

---

## Fill In For Each Lot

```
RISCOS JURÍDICOS:
[ ] Intimação cônjuge confirmada?         Sim: 0 / Não: 3 / Não verificado: 2
[ ] Embargos com efeito suspensivo?       Não: 0 / Sim: 4
[ ] Bem de família provável?              Não: 0 / Possível: 2 / Provável: 4
[ ] Ônus reais verificados e ok?          Sim: 0 / Não verificado: 2 / Ônus grave: 4
[ ] Documentação regular?                 Sim: 0 / Irregular menor: 1 / Grave: 3

RISCOS FINANCEIROS:
[ ] Débitos IPTU + Cond. quantificados?   Sim (até 10% VMP): 0 / Altos (>10%): 2 / Não verificado: 2
[ ] Situação da posse?                    Desocupado: 0 / Cooperativo: 1 / Litigioso: 3
[ ] Obras necessárias?                    Não: 0 / Leves: 1 / Pesadas: 3

RISCOS OPERACIONAIS:
[ ] Leiloeiro verificado?                 Sim: 0 / Não: 2
[ ] Processo verificado no TJ?            Sim: 0 / Não: 2
[ ] Edital está completo?                 Sim: 0 / Incompleto: 2

RISCOS DE MERCADO:
[ ] Liquidez local?                       Alta: 0 / Média: 1 / Baixa: 3
[ ] Risco ambiental?                      Baixo: 0 / Médio: 2 / Alto: 4

SCORE TOTAL: ___ / 36

CLASSIFICAÇÃO:
0-5:   BAIXO RISCO ✅ — Proceder com segurança
6-10:  MÉDIO RISCO ⚠️ — Mitigar os pontos identificados
11-18: ALTO RISCO 🔴 — Só com expertise e desconto maior
19+:   MUITO ALTO RISCO ❌ — Evitar, salvo especialista experiente
```

---

## Mandatory (Always, For Any Lot):

- [ ] Real-encumbrances certificate (updated title record) — R$ 50-150
- [ ] IPTU clearance certificate (or statement of debts)
- [ ] Full reading of the notice (Blocks 1-8 of the Notice SKILL)
- [ ] Case search in the state court system (or registry office)
- [ ] Verify the auctioneer with the Junta Comercial

## Supplementary (When Score > 5):

- [ ] Civil court-distributor certificate (actions on the property)
- [ ] Statement of condominium debts
- [ ] Visit to the property or the street (Google Street View at minimum)
- [ ] Ask the building manager about occupancy and condition
- [ ] Statement of water/sanitation debts

## For High-Value Lots (>R$ 500K):

- [ ] Partner with a specialist lawyer to analyze the case file
- [ ] Technical inspection report (engineer)
- [ ] Comparables research with a local CRECI-licensed broker
- [ ] Analysis of the debtor's certificates (fraud against enforcement)
- [ ] Consult the municipal master plan (land use and occupancy)

---

## Decision-Making — Decision Tree

```
SCORE DE RISCO:

≤ 5 (BAIXO):
  → ROI líquido > CDI? SIM → ARREMATAR
  → ROI líquido > CDI? NÃO → AGUARDAR MELHOR OPORTUNIDADE

6-10 (MÉDIO):
  → Problemas são mitigáveis? SIM + ROI > CDI+5% → ARREMATAR com cautelas
  → Problemas são mitigáveis? NÃO → NÃO ARREMATAR

11-18 (ALTO):
  → Você é especialista? SIM + ROI > CDI+15% → AVALIAR COM ADVOGADO
  → Você é especialista? NÃO → NÃO ARREMATAR

> 18 (MUITO ALTO):
  → NÃO ARREMATAR (salvo casos excepcionais com assessoria)
```

---

---

## Risk Of ITBI On VMP (Not On The Winning Bid)

**The problem:**
Many municipalities charge ITBI on the **reference assessed value** (VMP), not on
the actual auction-purchase amount (the winning bid). This can raise the cost by up to 3x.

**Example:**
- Property won at R$ 200.000
- Reference assessed value (city hall): R$ 400.000
- ITBI 3% on the winning bid: R$ 6.000
- ITBI 3% on the assessed value: R$ 12.000 ← charged by city hall

**Legal basis to challenge:**
- STJ Tema 1.113: ITBI must fall on the actual value of the transaction
- In a judicial auction: the auction-purchase deed (carta de arrematação) is the instrument — value = winning bid
- In an extrajudicial auction: the deed stating the winning-bid amount is the instrument
- You can challenge it administratively or via a writ of mandamus (mandado de segurança)

**Recommendation:** Budget ITBI on the VMP (worst case) and include it in the total cost.
If you manage to pay on the winning bid, that is extra savings.

## Risk Of Capital-Gains Income Tax (IR) On Resale

- Profit on resale is taxed at 15% (up to R$ 5M of gain)
- Acquisition cost: winning-bid amount + ITBI + commission + registration + documented works
- Exemption: sale up to R$ 440.000 of one's only property every 5 years
- Exemption: reinvestment in another residential property within 180 days
- **Tip:** document ALL expenses with tax invoices (renovation, regularization)
  to offset the capital gain

---

## Is The Winning Bidder Protected?

**General rule (Art. 903, §5º CPC):**
A purchase at public auction operates as an acquisition with judicial protection.
A good-faith winning bidder is protected against prior fraudulent transfers.

**But watch the scenarios:**

| Scenario | Risk to Winning Bidder | Protection |
|---------|----------------------|----------|
| Debtor sold the property before the attachment | Very Low | Art. 903 CPC protects the winning bidder |
| Third party claims to have bought it before the attachment | Medium | Depends on registration + good faith |
| Property is the subject of a third party's usucapião action | High | Conflict of titles — may be annulled |
| Debtor gifted it to a relative (fraud against creditors) | Low | Auction winner is protected |

**Mandatory verification:**
- Civil court-distributor certificate: check whether a real action (usucapião, recovery of possession)
  has been brought by a third party over the property
- If a third party's action claiming the property exists: HIGH RISK — avoid

---

## How To Run The Investment Stress Test:

```
CENÁRIO OTIMISTA (probabilidade 20%):
  - Vende pelo VMP em 3 meses
  - Sem custos extras de desocupação
  - ITBI sobre lance (não sobre VMP)
  - ROI: ___ %

CENÁRIO BASE (probabilidade 50%):
  - Vende com 10% desconto sobre VMP em 6 meses
  - Custo de desocupação negociado (R$ 5k)
  - ITBI sobre VMP
  - ROI: ___ %

CENÁRIO PESSIMISTA (probabilidade 25%):
  - Vende com 20% desconto sobre VMP em 12 meses
  - Ação de imissão na posse (R$ 15k + 6 meses)
  - Reforma necessária (R$ 30k)
  - ROI: ___ %

CENÁRIO CATASTRÓFICO (probabilidade 5%):
  - Arrematação anulada (perda do sinal, mas dinheiro devolvido)
  - OU: não consegue vender em 24 meses (capital travado)
  - OU: débitos ocultos consomem a margem (condomínio alto)
  - ROI: ___ % (possivelmente negativo)

ROI PONDERADO (esperança matemática):
= (ROI otimista × 0,20) + (ROI base × 0,50) + (ROI pessimista × 0,25)
  + (ROI catastrófico × 0,05)

Se ROI ponderado > CDI → ARREMATAR
Se ROI ponderado < CDI → NÃO VALE O RISCO
```

---

## Risk Glossary

| Term | Definition |
|-------|-----------|
| Propter Rem | An obligation that follows the asset (IPTU, condominium) — does not disappear on sale |
| Legal Risk | Possibility of annulment, nullity, or challenge of the auction purchase |
| Operational Risk | Difficulty in execution (vacating, renovation, regularization) |
| Tax Risk | ITBI on VMP vs. winning bid; IR on capital gains at resale |
| Opportunity Cost | What you forgo by tying up capital in this deal |
| Stress Test | Simulation of the worst possible scenario for the investment |
| Due Diligence | Complete prior diligence before winning the bid |
| VaR (Value at Risk) | Maximum estimated loss in an adverse scenario |
| Margin of Safety | Financial buffer between the total cost and the market value |
| Fraud Against Enforcement | Transfer of the asset after service to frustrate enforcement (Art. 792 CPC) |
| Weighted ROI | Expected return considering the probability of each scenario |

---

## Installation

Knowledge-based skill (knowledge-only). No dependency installation required.

```bash

## Verificar Se A Skill Está Registrada:

python C:\Users\renat\skills\agent-orchestrator\scripts\scan_registry.py
```

---

## Commands And Usage

How to use this skill:

```bash

## Uso Via Orchestrator (Automático):

python agent-orchestrator/scripts/match_skills.py "risco leilao imovel"

## "Score De Risco Dessa Arrematação"

```

---

## Governance

This skill implements the following governance policies:

- **action_log**: Risk analyses are logged by log_action for a complete audit trail
- **rate_limit**: Controlled via check_rate integrated into the ecosystem
- **requires_confirmation**: A score >28/36 (VERY HIGH) triggers a mandatory confirmation_request
- **warning_threshold**: A score >21/36 (HIGH) fires warning_threshold with an alert to the user

Additional policies:
- **Owner:** Leiloeiro IA Ecosystem
- **Scope:** Risk analysis and management in real-estate auctions
- **Limitations:** Scores and classifications are indicative. The final decision rests with the investor.
- **Audit:** Validated by skill-sentinel
- **Sensitive data:** Does not store the user's risk data

---

## References

Regulatory sources and risk references:
- CEMADEN (cemaden.gov.br) — environmental risk maps
- IBGE — digital mesh and zoning
- CPC/2015 — Arts. 829-925 (Enforcement and Auction Purchase)
- Lei 9.514/1997 — Fiduciary Alienation
- Lei 8.009/1990 — Bem de Família
- STJ — consolidated case law on auctions
- CTN Art. 130 — propter rem tax liability

## Best Practices

- Provide clear, specific context about your project and requirements
- Review all suggestions before applying them to production code
- Combine with other complementary skills for comprehensive analysis

## Common Pitfalls

- Using this skill for tasks outside its domain expertise
- Applying recommendations without understanding your specific context
- Not providing enough project context for accurate analysis

## Related Skills

- `junta-leiloeiros` - Complementary skill for enhanced analysis
- `leiloeiro-avaliacao` - Complementary skill for enhanced analysis
- `leiloeiro-edital` - Complementary skill for enhanced analysis
- `leiloeiro-ia` - Complementary skill for enhanced analysis
- `leiloeiro-juridico` - Complementary skill for enhanced analysis